Friday, December 28, 2007
2008: America at the Crossroads
In the past, I've tried to make predictions about the year ahead. I've been burned enough times to realize that I shouldn't be making any more predictions.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Labels: election 2008, Iraq, predictions, Terrorism
