Friday, December 28, 2007
2008: America at the Crossroads
In the past, I've tried to make predictions about the year ahead. I've been burned enough times to realize that I shouldn't be making any more predictions.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Labels: election 2008, Iraq, predictions, Terrorism
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Shock, Sadness and Suspicion
The assassination of Pakistani politician Benazir Bhutto is a tragic event that will only lead to chaotic turmoil; within Pakistan, it's unclear what will happen with the country's national elections. It's also unclear how a changed Pakistan will relate with the West.
While Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has publicly expressed his sadness and outrage, we should be suspicious as to whether Musharraf or a member of his government was responsible for the assassination. Ms. Bhutto threatened to unseat Musharraf at the polls and liberalize his police state. At the same time, the world should not be shocked if the Bhutto assassination was the work of Islamic militants who opposed secular government by a liberal Muslim woman.
Right now, the world can stand in solidarity in commemorating Ms. Bhutto's accomplishments and condemning her murder. Violence can silence a politician, but it cannot kill ideas. The hope of a democratic Pakistan is an idea that will not die, even if it will take a long time to implement.
While Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf has publicly expressed his sadness and outrage, we should be suspicious as to whether Musharraf or a member of his government was responsible for the assassination. Ms. Bhutto threatened to unseat Musharraf at the polls and liberalize his police state. At the same time, the world should not be shocked if the Bhutto assassination was the work of Islamic militants who opposed secular government by a liberal Muslim woman.
Right now, the world can stand in solidarity in commemorating Ms. Bhutto's accomplishments and condemning her murder. Violence can silence a politician, but it cannot kill ideas. The hope of a democratic Pakistan is an idea that will not die, even if it will take a long time to implement.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Christmas and Boxing Day
I hope that all of my readers had a blessed Christmas, spent with loved ones and dear friends. As for my holiday vacation back home, it was a very telling experience.
Getting to be with my family for the first time in an entire year was important. At the same time, I fell into my usual introversion traps and didn't make the most of the time I had with them. I was quite lazy, to the point where I disgust myself. At the same time, I could enjoy the simpler pleasures of going shopping with my father and my sister, or watching a movie with my grandmother.
Seeing friends from high school, some for the first time in over six years, was one of the better moments of my time back home. Talking about old times and times we spent apart over a beer was an unbeatable experience.
I looked at the place I was raised in the Chicago suburbs, but came to the conclusion that Albuquerque is my home. I was cared for and loved in the 'burbs, but I became the man I am in the 'burque. I never felt much attachment to Chicago because I rarely went into the city as a child. Perhaps I am much poorer for having missed it, but it really was never a part of my life. I can aspire to not repeat the mistakes of the past, and try to make the best of what I have been given in the present.
God bless, and have a safe 2008. Enjoy the rest of your Boxing Day and New Years. May the gift of Jesus not be lost on us; by following his ways, we can build peace within men and peace between men.
Getting to be with my family for the first time in an entire year was important. At the same time, I fell into my usual introversion traps and didn't make the most of the time I had with them. I was quite lazy, to the point where I disgust myself. At the same time, I could enjoy the simpler pleasures of going shopping with my father and my sister, or watching a movie with my grandmother.
Seeing friends from high school, some for the first time in over six years, was one of the better moments of my time back home. Talking about old times and times we spent apart over a beer was an unbeatable experience.
I looked at the place I was raised in the Chicago suburbs, but came to the conclusion that Albuquerque is my home. I was cared for and loved in the 'burbs, but I became the man I am in the 'burque. I never felt much attachment to Chicago because I rarely went into the city as a child. Perhaps I am much poorer for having missed it, but it really was never a part of my life. I can aspire to not repeat the mistakes of the past, and try to make the best of what I have been given in the present.
God bless, and have a safe 2008. Enjoy the rest of your Boxing Day and New Years. May the gift of Jesus not be lost on us; by following his ways, we can build peace within men and peace between men.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Petraeus: America's Person of the Year
Time Magazine has just named Vladimir Putin as its person-of-the-year. While this honor has widely been seen as an indicator of being the biggest newsmaker of the year, its relevance has been in doubt over the past year. It's true that old Pootie has been Russia's president for the last seven years, will soon become its prime minister, and will probably become the effective Czar of Russia. But his impact on the world stage beyond Russia has been limited (aside from his country's export of nuclear fuels and technology to Iran.)
I would argue that General David Petraeus is a far more worthy candidate for "Person of the Year" honors, and his contributions have been far more wide-ranging than those of Vlad Putin or anybody else. While Petraeus's presence has been understated, the impact of his decisions cannot be over-emphasized.
Going into 2007, the US mission in Iraq appeared to have hit a dead-end. Sectarian violence and terrorist actions were at an all-time high, and political support for the mission was eroding in the maelstrom of Washington hand-wringing and finger-pointing. In January, as President Bush was giving his speech to announce the "surge" plan, the talking heads cynically dismissed it as an attempt at delaying defeat until the next administration. As the surge built up through May, America's congressional leaders like Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer defiantly declared that the war was lost.
Through it all, General Petraeus never lost faith in the strategy. He wrote the book on counterinsurgency. He understood that more men alone will not defeat an insurgency, but that engaging the people and providing for their basic needs is a far more effective weapon than the defensive mentalities and shows of force that had previously dictated US strategy. By September, as violence between Iraqis and violence against Americans was dropping, he could tell Congress that the surge had achieved its major objectives.
It's unclear how history will judge America's battle for the soul of Iraq. But it's pretty clear that the time between the fall of Baghdad and the beginning of the surge will be regarded as a tragic mistake, the product of a failure in American generalship to acknowledge and embrace history's hard-earned lessons from battling insurgencies. General David Petraeus, backed up with the sacrifices of America's armed forces, have turned the tide.
As Christmas and the new year draw near, we should always be looking for signs of hope. In Washington and Baghdad this year, there is renewed hope that a war-torn nation that has never known peace in recent history can finally achieve it. Much work still needs to be done. As American forces begin to pull back and give their duties to Iraq's Army, we must pray that they will be able to serve as agents of deterring violence and protecting the innocent. We must pray also that Iraq's Shiite leaders will learn to forgive the past misdeeds of the Sunnis, if doing so will lead to future peace.
But without the genius and steadfastness of General David Petraeus, and without the selfless and workmanlike sacrifices of the men under his command, there would be no reason for hope this holiday season. We should count our blessings, and be greatful for such great people who wear the uniform with professionalism and honor.
I would argue that General David Petraeus is a far more worthy candidate for "Person of the Year" honors, and his contributions have been far more wide-ranging than those of Vlad Putin or anybody else. While Petraeus's presence has been understated, the impact of his decisions cannot be over-emphasized.
Going into 2007, the US mission in Iraq appeared to have hit a dead-end. Sectarian violence and terrorist actions were at an all-time high, and political support for the mission was eroding in the maelstrom of Washington hand-wringing and finger-pointing. In January, as President Bush was giving his speech to announce the "surge" plan, the talking heads cynically dismissed it as an attempt at delaying defeat until the next administration. As the surge built up through May, America's congressional leaders like Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer defiantly declared that the war was lost.
Through it all, General Petraeus never lost faith in the strategy. He wrote the book on counterinsurgency. He understood that more men alone will not defeat an insurgency, but that engaging the people and providing for their basic needs is a far more effective weapon than the defensive mentalities and shows of force that had previously dictated US strategy. By September, as violence between Iraqis and violence against Americans was dropping, he could tell Congress that the surge had achieved its major objectives.
It's unclear how history will judge America's battle for the soul of Iraq. But it's pretty clear that the time between the fall of Baghdad and the beginning of the surge will be regarded as a tragic mistake, the product of a failure in American generalship to acknowledge and embrace history's hard-earned lessons from battling insurgencies. General David Petraeus, backed up with the sacrifices of America's armed forces, have turned the tide.
As Christmas and the new year draw near, we should always be looking for signs of hope. In Washington and Baghdad this year, there is renewed hope that a war-torn nation that has never known peace in recent history can finally achieve it. Much work still needs to be done. As American forces begin to pull back and give their duties to Iraq's Army, we must pray that they will be able to serve as agents of deterring violence and protecting the innocent. We must pray also that Iraq's Shiite leaders will learn to forgive the past misdeeds of the Sunnis, if doing so will lead to future peace.
But without the genius and steadfastness of General David Petraeus, and without the selfless and workmanlike sacrifices of the men under his command, there would be no reason for hope this holiday season. We should count our blessings, and be greatful for such great people who wear the uniform with professionalism and honor.
Sunday, December 09, 2007
End of an Era
I just wanted to inform the five people who read this blog (just kidding, I hope) that I have deleted my original opinions website on Geocities.
The move is long overdue, as this blog superseded that page in January 2004. The previous website chronicled a period from the disputed 2000 election to the early stages of the 2004 Democratic primaries. It is also a period as I transitioned from a very awkward high school student to a somewhat-awkward college student.
But something inside me changed as well. I began that span of time as a shrill-voiced, conservative Republican. Some of my positions began to moderate somewhat by the time this blog started. By this point in my life I view myself as more Libertarian than Conservative. I find Republicans to be generally more tolerable than Democrats, but I acknowledge the weaknesses of both parties. I've also tried to take a less condescending tone, and tried to battle issues without turning my arguments into personal attacks against the proponents of those issues.
My biggest regret over that period of time when I kept the Geocities site was my naivety on the issue of Iraq. I firmly believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (chemical weapons, at the very least) and ties to Islamist terrorists (possibly even the 9/11 plot itself.) I was not critical enough of the administration's case for war and its strategy for prosecuting that war (and its rebuilding phase.) The only area where I was really critical was the ways in which the administration failed to accommodate diplomatic efforts leading up to the war, and the way in which the war was arbitrarily started without a UN vote or a "Smoking Gun."
With that being said, I now believe that Iraq can turn the corner and transition to stability and reconstruction operations. I regards the months between May 2003 and January 2007 as tragic folly, as the US did not adopt an effective counterinsurgency strategy to engage the population. Regardless of whether invading Iraq was the correct course of action, I hope all Americans can see the historical parallels between modern-day Iraq and post-Soviet Afghanistan. America must continue to support Iraq's stabilization and reconstruction, lest the country collapse and become a haven for those who wish to harm our homeland.
Speaking of Afghanistan, that country has become my most persistent worry since the days when I started that Geocities site. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan still operates much like the middle ages, with a barter economy, rampant poverty and squalor, and government by warlords. I don't have any good answers to solve the problem of how we can prevent Islamist terrorists from regrouping in a country that is hostile towards all foreigners and ruled by disparate tribes.
On some issues, I haven't shifted much. While I've grown more critical of President Bush, I'm still glad that Al Gore didn't become president in 2001. I'm even more ecstatic that John Kerry isn't the president today. My opinions of Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and Donald Rumsfeld have all dropped, but at least I can look up to Robert Gates and Robert Mukasey. I also think the scandal-plagued tenure of Alberto Gonzalez might make the so-called liberals take back some of their criticisms of John Ashcroft, as he looked like a saint in comparison.
As far as my positions are concerned, I have moved past "compassionate conservatism" as merely a justification for using Big Government to promote traditional values. I reject constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, and I've become much more sympathetic towards gay rights in general. I've moderated my pro-life position on abortion somewhat, but I'm still more authoritarian on this issue than most Libertarians. I've also concluded that the drug wars have harmed our society more than they have helped.
This little diatribe of mine barely skims the surface of everything that's gone down between Fall 2000 and December 2007. I can only encourage my readership to continue to believe in the power of the American Ideal and the American People. Many Americans no longer believe that we enjoy peace and prosperity, but the "peace" and "prosperity" we remember through rosy glasses were illusory to begin with. We still have relative peace at home, and we still strive for peace abroad. America still enjoys relative prosperity when looking at the way the rest of the world lives. If we believe in the power of America, we can continue to make this nation great. If we remember that America is about personal freedom and personal responsibility, that ideal will never die.
The move is long overdue, as this blog superseded that page in January 2004. The previous website chronicled a period from the disputed 2000 election to the early stages of the 2004 Democratic primaries. It is also a period as I transitioned from a very awkward high school student to a somewhat-awkward college student.
But something inside me changed as well. I began that span of time as a shrill-voiced, conservative Republican. Some of my positions began to moderate somewhat by the time this blog started. By this point in my life I view myself as more Libertarian than Conservative. I find Republicans to be generally more tolerable than Democrats, but I acknowledge the weaknesses of both parties. I've also tried to take a less condescending tone, and tried to battle issues without turning my arguments into personal attacks against the proponents of those issues.
My biggest regret over that period of time when I kept the Geocities site was my naivety on the issue of Iraq. I firmly believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction (chemical weapons, at the very least) and ties to Islamist terrorists (possibly even the 9/11 plot itself.) I was not critical enough of the administration's case for war and its strategy for prosecuting that war (and its rebuilding phase.) The only area where I was really critical was the ways in which the administration failed to accommodate diplomatic efforts leading up to the war, and the way in which the war was arbitrarily started without a UN vote or a "Smoking Gun."
With that being said, I now believe that Iraq can turn the corner and transition to stability and reconstruction operations. I regards the months between May 2003 and January 2007 as tragic folly, as the US did not adopt an effective counterinsurgency strategy to engage the population. Regardless of whether invading Iraq was the correct course of action, I hope all Americans can see the historical parallels between modern-day Iraq and post-Soviet Afghanistan. America must continue to support Iraq's stabilization and reconstruction, lest the country collapse and become a haven for those who wish to harm our homeland.
Speaking of Afghanistan, that country has become my most persistent worry since the days when I started that Geocities site. Unlike Iraq, Afghanistan still operates much like the middle ages, with a barter economy, rampant poverty and squalor, and government by warlords. I don't have any good answers to solve the problem of how we can prevent Islamist terrorists from regrouping in a country that is hostile towards all foreigners and ruled by disparate tribes.
On some issues, I haven't shifted much. While I've grown more critical of President Bush, I'm still glad that Al Gore didn't become president in 2001. I'm even more ecstatic that John Kerry isn't the president today. My opinions of Dick Cheney, Condi Rice and Donald Rumsfeld have all dropped, but at least I can look up to Robert Gates and Robert Mukasey. I also think the scandal-plagued tenure of Alberto Gonzalez might make the so-called liberals take back some of their criticisms of John Ashcroft, as he looked like a saint in comparison.
As far as my positions are concerned, I have moved past "compassionate conservatism" as merely a justification for using Big Government to promote traditional values. I reject constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, and I've become much more sympathetic towards gay rights in general. I've moderated my pro-life position on abortion somewhat, but I'm still more authoritarian on this issue than most Libertarians. I've also concluded that the drug wars have harmed our society more than they have helped.
This little diatribe of mine barely skims the surface of everything that's gone down between Fall 2000 and December 2007. I can only encourage my readership to continue to believe in the power of the American Ideal and the American People. Many Americans no longer believe that we enjoy peace and prosperity, but the "peace" and "prosperity" we remember through rosy glasses were illusory to begin with. We still have relative peace at home, and we still strive for peace abroad. America still enjoys relative prosperity when looking at the way the rest of the world lives. If we believe in the power of America, we can continue to make this nation great. If we remember that America is about personal freedom and personal responsibility, that ideal will never die.
Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Dropping the bomb?
What should Americans make of the National Intelligence Estimate which states that Iran dropped its nuclear bomb program in 2003? While many people want to use this report to justify a diplomatic thaw with the Islamic Republic, the truth is that this development (if true) doesn't mean a whole lot.
With Iraq, the intelligence community was frightened by its lack of knowledge of what was going on inside Iraqi weapons programs. The situation is totally opposite with Iran: it's the things we know to be true that frighten us. Iran is actively pursuing the enrichment of Uranium. They have currently built thousands of centrifuges to do so. And they openly flaunt these facts on the world stage.
Iran may have dropped its active efforts to design a nuclear bomb. That doesn't mean a whole lot. The construction of the bomb is fairly easy once the fuel for such a weapon is obtained. Iran's publicly-acknowledged Uranium enrichment program has the capability to fuel an Iranian nuclear bomb. The effort to design and build an atomic bomb could be restarted at any minute, with the enrichment of Uranium the critical-path item which would set the schedule for the Iranian nuke.
I don't think the NIE should change America's approach at all. Continue to sanction the Iranian regime, and continue to target the civilian nuclear program with sanctions as long as the current regime is in power. The only thing I would change is America's dependence on Iranian oil (as well as oil from Venezuela and the other middle-eastern autocrats) and its reluctance to embrace bio-fuels.
With Iraq, the intelligence community was frightened by its lack of knowledge of what was going on inside Iraqi weapons programs. The situation is totally opposite with Iran: it's the things we know to be true that frighten us. Iran is actively pursuing the enrichment of Uranium. They have currently built thousands of centrifuges to do so. And they openly flaunt these facts on the world stage.
Iran may have dropped its active efforts to design a nuclear bomb. That doesn't mean a whole lot. The construction of the bomb is fairly easy once the fuel for such a weapon is obtained. Iran's publicly-acknowledged Uranium enrichment program has the capability to fuel an Iranian nuclear bomb. The effort to design and build an atomic bomb could be restarted at any minute, with the enrichment of Uranium the critical-path item which would set the schedule for the Iranian nuke.
I don't think the NIE should change America's approach at all. Continue to sanction the Iranian regime, and continue to target the civilian nuclear program with sanctions as long as the current regime is in power. The only thing I would change is America's dependence on Iranian oil (as well as oil from Venezuela and the other middle-eastern autocrats) and its reluctance to embrace bio-fuels.
