Friday, December 28, 2007
2008: America at the Crossroads
In the past, I've tried to make predictions about the year ahead. I've been burned enough times to realize that I shouldn't be making any more predictions.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Going into 2007, I thought that the Surge would be a failure, that Hillary Clinton would fizzle, and Rudy would establish a strong lead. I was wrong about all of those things. I'm glad my pessimism about the Surge was disproved, through the shrewdness of our military leadership and the perserverence of our armed forces. While I thought that Hillary and Barack would weaken each other and enable an Al Gore presidential run, it appears that the former Veep is content with his Oscar and his Nobel Prize, while continuing to peddle junk science and control the debate in Washington. The Republican field has gotten downright crazy, with Rudy having to duke it out against Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and even Ron Paul.
The only certainty about 2008 is that this is a critical year of critical decisions for America. Our fighting forces have won a hard-fought reprieve in the struggle for Iraq's soul. But the path ahead is less certain, and the fragile peace that prevails today could easily evaporate in the absence of solid leadership within both Baghdad and Washington. My hope is that our forces in Iraq can scale back to 80,000 by the end of 2008 and to 50,000 by the end of 2009. But that will depend on a number of factors. Will America's next commander-in-chief have the patience to scale back at a pace recommended by our military leadership? Will Iraq's leaders be able to accommodate the once-warring factions and forgive people with blood on their hands? Will Iraq's army be able to sustain the gains the surge has made?
The presidential election is incredibly muddled, and nobody stands out as being truly presidential. On the Democratic side, it looks like a two-horse race between the experienced & polarizing Hillary Clinton versus the inexperienced & energetic Barack Obama. Neither of them strikes me as being very presidential. On the Republican side, the experience of candidates like John McCain and Rudy Giuliani is being overshadowed by the sideshows that are the Huckabee and Romney campaigns.
Domestically, many issues are being brought to the forefront, while other critical issues go largely ignored. There's no national strategy to achieve America's energy independence. Instead, global warming and socialized medicine are high on the list of hot-button issues. The sub-prime crisis, the falling dollar, and the lull in the housing market are all troubling signs that the economy is stagnating. The national debt continues to grow, the baby boomers continue to collect Social Security, and we're years away from balancing the budget.
Internationally, America will also require strong leadership. Pakistan's internal political struggles, the growing hostility with Russia, China's continual economic and geopolitical growth, Iran's nuclear program, the eternal Israeli-Palestinian struggle, and the possibility of civil war within Lebanon are all important issues that America will have to deal with for years to come. Most troubling, al Qaeda and the Taliban continue to regroup within Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While the 800-pound gorilla called "Iraq" is showing some signs of improvement, a number of less-prominent issues are now growing to the point of critical importance to our nation. Most important to remember is that America needs leadership that can take the initiative, reach across party lines, and provide decisive leadership when America needs it most.
Labels: election 2008, Iraq, predictions, Terrorism
Sunday, May 06, 2007
He who laughs last, laughs hardest
Ayman al Zawahiri's new video tape has centered around a mocking rant against President Bush. He claims that America's presence in Iraq is an opportunity for al Qaeda to kill up to 300,000 Americans. The first thing that went through my mind is that this is Zawahiri's equivalent to President Bush's infamous "Bring 'em on" remark.
I then thought about Michael Scheuer's central argument in Imperial Hubris, that the al Qaeda leaders genuinely believe in what they say, as they are very principled and idealistic. The recent Zawahiri video, as well as bin Laden's last audio tape from over a year ago, seem to invalidate that observation. Zawahiri is now calling on minorities in America to rebel against "whitey." Do these terrorist assholes think they can rebuild their mideast caliphate by starting race riots in America? I've got news for these chodes: when terrorists attack one American, it's an attack against ALL Americans, regardless of race, color or creed.
Zawahiri's boast comes at a bad time for al Qaeda. Opinion polls in middle eastern countries show that more and more Muslims are denouncing al Qaeda. In Iraq, al Qaeda has killed so many innocents that the terror groups former supporters in Anbar province are turning against it. The so-called "Taliban Spring Offensive" has not lived up to the pronouncements of Taliban commanders, aside from battles that leave 136 Taliban killed in a single day.
Zawahiri and the Taliban are operating from the same playbook: use rhetoric to intimidate the enemy when you are short on action. American can learn a lesson from this, too. If America can hold together through "Max-Q" in Iraq, we can restore the necessary degree of stability so we can leave honorably. The truth is that al Qaeda is on the ropes worldwide, and especially in Iraq. They gambled that they could defeat the US by starting a Sunni-Shiite civil war. While there is much work to be done in order to undo the damage caused by al Qaeda's strategy, the terrorists have pissed off so many people that they may never be able to form a stable government in Iraq.
I then thought about Michael Scheuer's central argument in Imperial Hubris, that the al Qaeda leaders genuinely believe in what they say, as they are very principled and idealistic. The recent Zawahiri video, as well as bin Laden's last audio tape from over a year ago, seem to invalidate that observation. Zawahiri is now calling on minorities in America to rebel against "whitey." Do these terrorist assholes think they can rebuild their mideast caliphate by starting race riots in America? I've got news for these chodes: when terrorists attack one American, it's an attack against ALL Americans, regardless of race, color or creed.
Zawahiri's boast comes at a bad time for al Qaeda. Opinion polls in middle eastern countries show that more and more Muslims are denouncing al Qaeda. In Iraq, al Qaeda has killed so many innocents that the terror groups former supporters in Anbar province are turning against it. The so-called "Taliban Spring Offensive" has not lived up to the pronouncements of Taliban commanders, aside from battles that leave 136 Taliban killed in a single day.
Zawahiri and the Taliban are operating from the same playbook: use rhetoric to intimidate the enemy when you are short on action. American can learn a lesson from this, too. If America can hold together through "Max-Q" in Iraq, we can restore the necessary degree of stability so we can leave honorably. The truth is that al Qaeda is on the ropes worldwide, and especially in Iraq. They gambled that they could defeat the US by starting a Sunni-Shiite civil war. While there is much work to be done in order to undo the damage caused by al Qaeda's strategy, the terrorists have pissed off so many people that they may never be able to form a stable government in Iraq.
