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Sunday, October 28, 2007

The Battle for Primary Primacy 

Until now I've avoided much commentary on the current primary battles in both parties. At this point, though, it looks like a concensus is starting to coalesce. While things look rosy for supporters of a Hillary presidency at this point, it should be noted that we're still very early in the campaign, and much self-destruction can go on between now and then.

The Republican race is one of the most contested in years, with Republican voters still waiting for the muddled situation to start settling. Some of the second-tier candidates like Tommy Thompson & Sam Brownback have already dropped out, while Duncan Hunter and Mike Huckabee continue to fight. I would expect them to hang on, at least through the Iowa Caucus.

Rudy Giuliani jumped to an early lead but now appears to be running out of steam. He faces more media criticism, plus the belief that he can't win the support of Evangelical Christians. Part of me thinks that the evangelical concerns are being cooked up by the media; many of them can support Rudy on the basis of his 9/11 leadership, even if they disagree on social issues. If Hillary runs, I'm certain that the Evangelicals will be at the polls to support ANYBODY with a chance of beating her.

At the same time, Mitt Romney is surging thanks to his courting of Evangelicals. The alliance between the Mormon from Massachusetts and the Bible Belt is not a solid one, though. I personally don't trust Romney, as a waffler who ran a largely-Democrat state by frequently kowtowing to the legislature. By the end of primary season, Romney could end up on the same waffle-iron as his fellow Massachusetts politician, John Kerry.

Fred Thompson won over some of the Republican undecideds during the period before he declared his candidacy. But Candidate Thompson seems to have fallen flat and isn't generating further support. I don't call Fred's conservative credentials into question. I appreciate his direct and often humorous approach to addressing questions and audiences. But I think his lack of executive experience hurts his credentials as a presidential candidate. It seems like he's trying to rely on his familiarity through "Law & Order" more than anything else.

John McCain is my favorite candidate from the bunch, but his campaign is clearly on its last legs. I don't know if he will stay in the race until the end, but he's clearly positioning himself to be somebody's VP candidate. Rudy has mentioned his name before, but the eventual Republican candidate will probably include a southeasterner or a Texan on his ticket.

Ron Paul's campaign is similar to McCain's from 2000, picking up the support of people on the political fringe who haven't felt well-served by either major party. Unfortunately, Paul's sensible domestic policies are overshadowed by an isolationist foreign policy that attracts believers in 9/11 conspiracies. He's not going to be the Republican nominee, but I can easily see him running as a Libertarian or an Independent by the time the election rolls around.

Regardless of whoever wins the Republican nomination, it will be an uphill fight to keep the GOP in the White House. Democrats are raising more funds than Republicans by a wide margin. Perhaps Republican donors are waiting for the dust to settle, and a Hillary nomination will certainly bring the Republican donors out of the woodwork. But the truth is that the GOP has lost its initiative in being a party of ideas for solving domestic problems. I especially like John McCain's free-market ideas for reforming health care. But the Democrats are controlling the agenda and the debate now. It would appear that the domestic agenda has been shaped by two leftist movies: Michael Moore's "Sicko" and Al Gore's "An Inconvenient Truth."

Of course, the domestic agenda of the Republicans has been tainted by Iraq, the 800-pound gorilla in the room. Even if the recent positive trends in Iraq continue, this issue is going to allow Democrats to control the debate and the tone of Washington. It's a no-win situation for Republicans, because too many Americans have suffered an irreversible loss of faith in our mission. The only way out of this is for President Bush to begin implementing some kind of endgame in Iraq by early 2008. My belief is that the US will have to maintain a presence of 60K-80K troops in Iraq for the next decade; President Bush will have to start implementing this strategy in early 2008, or otherwise an incoming Democrat administration would have the political capital to implement an abrupt and deeper withdrawal.

The best thing going for the Republicans right now is the fact that Hillary Clinton is the likely Democratic nominee. She is a polarizing figure who will motivate registered Republicans to vote against her. But that's not the benefit that some (like Karl Rove) currently bank on. The truth is that Democrats are making up a larger fraction of the registered voter poll. And the ~20% of American voters who call themselves "independents" are increasingly breaking in favor of Democrats.

It's also worth noting that the Democratic Primary is Hillary Clinton's race to lose. The same was true for Howard Dean four years ago. Dean imploded over the "electability" issue (and because he was insane.) The same could happen for Hillary, with Barack Obama or possibly Al Gore swooping in and dragging most of Hillary's supporters.

If the Republicans hope to win in 2008, they have no room for error. They will need to accomplish all of the following to achieve victory:
--Recruit fresh faces to run in contested Congressional races and motivate Republicans to vote on election day
--Settle on a presidential candidate early, get the party to unify behind that candidate, and find a VP candidate who can bring Independents onto the ticket
--Use Ron Paul as a means of splitting the anti-war vote
--Begin implementing a strategy for lasting peace and stability in Iraq that will create less of a strain on America's resources (its military and its budget)
--Articulate free-market solutions for the domestic issues which affect everyday Americans
--Take Democrats to the task on big-government ideas which will deprive people of their liberties

Thursday, October 25, 2007

Talking Turkey 

US relations with the Turks appear to be heading to an all-time low that will have harsh consequences for the US mission in Iraq.

The most immediate issue is the use of northern Iraq as a safe-haven by guerrillas from the Kurdish PKK militia. The Turks are justifiably angry that their soldiers are being killed by these rebels from across the border, and they want to do something about it. While the US and its Iraqi Kurd allies have a duty to suppress the violence on the Iraqi side of the border, the truth is that the US has insufficient forces to perform the mission and the Iraqi Kurds have no willingness to fight their fellow Kurds. It remains to be seen whether the Turkish threats will result in an Iraqi crackdown that improves the situation, or if Turkey will use military force across the border.

At the same time, the US Congress is compounding the issue with a resolution which labels the mass killings of Armenians by the Young Turks in 1915-17 as an act of genocide. I agree with the Congressional view, and I believe that the Armenian Genocide was a disgusting part of fairly-recent history. At the same time, I have to question what good the Congressional resolution will do. How many proponents of the Genocide are still alive today, over 90 years after the crime? It's unfair to condemn the entire Turkish nation for the sins and crimes committed by some of their ancestors.

While the Turks are largely in denial over this vile chapter in their history, the same can be said about the Japanese and Germans in relation to the Second World War. Congress isn't passing resolutions regarding the Holocaust in Europe or the Japanese Rape of Nanking, but they've singled out the Turks for condemnation. This foreign policy faux pas comes as the Turks are weighing their options on Iraq. If the Turkey situation blows up in our faces, the stable northern part of Iraq will erupt in violence, and the supply routes for delivering new Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles to our soldiers in Iraq will be severed. Picking at the scars of the past will only make us bleed in the present.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

I'm Gay for Brian Griese 

The Bears' 97-yard drive to beat the Eagles in the final minutes of today's game really lifted my spirits. Brian Griese really looked like his Broncos predecessor, John Elway, in orchestrating the unlikely comeback. Overall, Griese passed for 322 yards and threw his first INT-free game of the season. He also got good performances from wide receivers Devin Hester (who is so good it's scary) and Muhsin Muhammad (who really stepped up today after several lackluster games.) Brian Urlacher had a good game, after taking personally his sub-par performance last week. Urlacher's work ethic never fails to impress me, even when he has a bad game.

The Bears victory was even more unlikely because they burned two second-half timeouts on sophomoric mistakes. Devin Hester lined up on the wrong side (Hester may not be to blame for the confusion, though,) and tight end Desmond Clark was late in getting on the field on another play. The Bears also had a high number of yards lost due to some pretty dumb penalties, such as false starts, offsides, and offensive holding.

Danieal Manning and Adam Archuleta continue to make their cases for being cut from the team. They're simply getting burned for too many big plays, especially during last week's Vikings game that looked like a one-man track meet for the Vikings' Adrian Peterson.

Even more disappointing is halfback Cedric Benson, whose 17 carries amounted to a whopping 46 yards. He's not even earning three yards per carry. While I think some of the problem has to do with the playcalling of offensive coordinator Ron Turner, it's clear that Benson will never hold the role once occupied by Gale Sayers and Walter Payton in the hearts of Bears fans. This weakness in the running back position has two effects on the Bears: it forces Brian Griese to throw 40-50 times per game in order to have a shot at victory, and it forces the Bears defense to tire out faster--the offense can't win the battle for time of possession without a ground game.

During the webcast of the game on WBBM radio, the station reads e-mails received from Bears fans instead of the commercials that broadcast listeners would have to suffer through. There were plenty of calls to replace Griese with either Rex Grossman or Kyle Orton. Face it, Bear-fans: the team's problem is not the current quarterback. The offense is putting points on the board, but the team can't control the time of possession, and the defense is decimated with injuries to key players. Putting Grossman in the game would not fix the problem, and would probably make it worse. Do you think a mistake-prone doofus like Rex Grossman could have remained cool and smart enough to pull off a drive like Griese did? Grossman couldn't put points on the board, and his single victory this season (over the Chiefs) is so elementary that it's akin to having sex with the Grand Canyon. While I like Kyle Orton and think he has a lot of potential, I would only play him if the Bears have been eliminated from playoff contention. As much as the other elements of the team would mitigate against a Bears playoff appearance, the current passing game will be the only thing that gets them there, God-willing.

Wednesday, October 10, 2007

Blackwater in hot water 

The Iraqi government is seeking to expel Blackwater Security from their country, following an incident in which 17 Iraqis were killed by the private security firm. The reaction of the US Government to this incident could have dramatic consequences for the embattled middle eastern nation.

The members of Blackwater have a reputation for acting recklessly in its use of force. Further, Blackwater security contractors are not subject to either Iraqi law or US Military law; thus, there's little accountability for their actions. Many members of the US military view the Blackwater contractors as trigger-happy cowboys. While this characterization may not be true for all members of the security firm, it's an impression that's been reinforced through multiple, shameful incidents.

If the US Government acceeds to Iraqi government requests and curtails the role of Blackwater, it might help to heal some broken fences. It would show Iraqis that their government is not entirely powerless, and that it holds sway over America. Further, it might show Muslims that America is more than the selfish occupier they believe us to be. While filling the mission currently served by firms like Blackwater will be difficult, our armed forces can meet the need if necessary. What I foresee is a far more limited and defensive-minded role for Blackwater, with more oversight by both the US and Iraqi governments.

Monday, October 08, 2007

Columbus Was a Crank 

As many of us take Columbus Day off of work or school today, we should take a moment to consider the man whom we are celebrating: Christopher Columbus. No, not the Christopher Columbus who outwitted his contemporaries and discovered America; nor the Columbus who has been blamed for the oppression and genocide against the indigenous peoples of the Americas. I am referring to my view of Christopher Columbus, the crackpot sea captain who was very lucky to have a continent in the very same place where he thought Asia should be.

Columbus believed the world was round, but that did not make him special in his day. The ancient Greek scientists and philosophers believed the earth was round, as did the educated people of renaissance Europe during Columbus's era. The scientists of renaissance Europe had even estimated the size of the round earth to a degree of accuracy that was remarkable for that period of time. Yet Columbus did not believe them. Through a combination of flawed sources and bad conversions of distances from one unit to another, Columbus arrived at a view of an earth much smaller than that of his peers. While the sea captains of his day knew that no ships could carry the necessary supplies for a trip from Europe to Asia, Columbus's small-earth view made him believe that a ship (three, to be precise) could carry the provisions needed for a trip to Asia.

Columbus was ridiculed and met with rejection by most Eurpoean monarchs to whom he briefed his plan. Ferdinand and Isabella of Spain needed three attempts by Columbus before they could be persuaded. Even still, Columbus needed the services of convicts to meet his ships' manpower needs; apparently the experienced sailors believed Columbus was nuts.

So today we celebrate Christopher Columbus, with the majority of the population believing the nonsensical "flat earth" story of Columbus's achievements. The Italian-American community has been using Columbus as its hero, even though he was a crank (and in spite of historical debate on whether Columbus was really an Italian or a Spaniard.) Frankly the Italian-American community can find much better heroes than the crank who got lucky. I mean, New York mayors Fiorella LaGuardia and Rudolph Giuliani should be great Italian-American heroes, as should guitarist Joe Satriani. They could even embrace Amerigo Vespucci, the cartographer and explorer who pushed for the idea that the lands visited by Columbus were a new continent rather than Asia. If I was the king of the world, I'd replace "Columbus Day" with "Satriani Day." Now THAT would rock!

Sunday, October 07, 2007

Brett Favre Can Stick His Nose In My Ass and Lick My Balls From Behind 

It felt good to see the Bears get a win over the Packers at Lambeau Field. Brian Griese played a good game, only giving up one INT (albeit at a critical point in the 4th quarter.) Once again, we saw evidence that wide receivers Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian are absolutely worthless and should be traded. Tight End Greg Olsen made a few good catches at critical points in the game, including his touchdown. While Cedric Benson made a few good runs during the 4th quarter, it's clear that the Bears traded the wrong halfback in the offseason.

The big story was the Bears defense. They looked absolutely awful for the first two-and-a-half quarters of the game, but gelled together at the end to make some key plays and get the win. Brett Favre's 300+ yards in offense during the first half were answered with several consecutive three-and-out drives for the Packers in the second half. They pressured Brett Favre into throwing the ball for a Brian Urlacher interception. Israel Idonije made another key play by forcing a fumble on a kick return, picked up by punter Brad Maynard. Finally, Brandon McGowan came up with a key interception in the endzone, robbing Brett Favre of his last opportinity to tie up the game.

I'm very proud of the way the Bears got their act together late in the game, compared to the previous two weeks when they melted down in the 4th quarter. I still believe that Brian Griese should start for the rest of this season, but I have serious doubts about the rest of this team. The pass protection is weak, there's no running game to speak of, and not much going in the way of wide receivers. The injury-decimated defense is going to need some confidence and they'll need to make some key plays, while playing well for all four quarters.

Thursday, October 04, 2007

Senate Shakeups 

Senate Republicans face new turmoil after major announcements regarding two of their own: long-serving New Mexico senator Pete Domenici is stepping aside, while the embattled Larry Craig of Idaho is not backing down.

Domenici's retirement retirement is long overdue, in my view. He's lost any enthusiasm he may have once held towards public service. His views on Iraq shift according to whatever is politically expedient. His reputation is for bringing federal "pork" dollars home to New Mexico, one of the nation's most rural and most impoverished states..

Who will replace Senator Domenici? The Democrats could field a number of candidates, including former NM Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Her campaign to unseat Representative Heather Wilson last fall fell short by little more than a thousand votes. On the Republican side, Representative Heather Wilson would probably be the best bet to replace Domenici. Her foreign policy experience and her realist views on Iraq (scaling back to a sustainable force level that can protect vital US interests in Iraq) make her a level-headed and sensible candidate. Regardless of who is nominated, it's clear that New Mexico will be a hotly-contested battleground into which the national campaign committees from both parties will pour millions of dollars.

On the Larry Craig front, I have to say that I'm disappointed in the setbacks he's faced towards having his conviction thrown out. I do not understand how the police can arrest a person based on a pattern of foot-tapping. Where's the proof that the tap code was a deliberate solicitation of prostitution? I'm undecided on whether Senator Craig really was trying to solicit a male prostitute in that Minneapolis Airport bathroom, but I think the arresting officer made a premature arrest before he had any firm proof that a crime was taking place.

Of all the Senate scandals in my lifetime, the Larry Craig scandal has to be the most tame and the most lame. It's so dumb that it probably doesn't deserve my time. Senator Craig should be able to finish out his term as long as he stays on good behavior.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Phony Soldiers, Real Consequences 

Talk radio pundit Rush Limbaugh is facing a maelstrom of Democratic criticism regarding his comment about anti-war activists using "phony soldiers" to bolster their cause. In the eyes of his critics, Limbaugh's words impugn all soldiers who are critical of the war effort. Rush has always been a staunch supporter of our armed forces, but Democrats would allege that he only supports those service members who toe the Republican party line.

The incident reminds me much of John Kerry's "stuck in Iraq" comments from last year, which could have been quickly averted had Senator Kerry simply clarified his remarks and apologized for any harm they may have caused. While I do not expect Rush to take my suggestion, I also think he should recognize the right of our combat veterans to disagree with their leadership, and still thank them for their sacrifices and professionalism. At the same time, I think that Rush is right to take on legitimate examples of when the anti-war movement has falsified atrocities in order to make its case.

Rush's comments were in reaction to Jesse Macbeth, a boot camp dropout who claimed that he was an Army Ranger who witnessed atrocities in Iraq. Macbeth is not the first, and will probably not be the last, of the "phony soldiers" exploited by the anti-war community. There's the recent case of Scott Thomas Beauchamp, a real soldier whose falsified stories of atrocities made it into the pages of The New Republic. During Vietnam, the "Winter Soldier" movement did indeed make use of phony soldiers.

Rush has been criticized for his attacks on Jack Murtha during the fallout over the "phony soldiers" remarks. While Murtha's actions during Vietnam may have been heroic, his dishonest treatment of the Haditha Marines makes him a "phony soldier" for the enemy. By using his position to accuse them of atrocities without seeing any evidence is an injustice that reeks of phoniness. The Murtha mentality (and the mentality of directors Paul Haggis & Brian DePalma) is that criticism of the soldiers' actions is fair, because George Bush started the war, so he's ultimately to blame for the actions of every individual soldier. Moreover, this mentality asks us to believe that war corrupts everybody, and that nobody's morals can withstand the rigors of war.

I can expect such drivel from a Hollywood film director. An experienced Marine like Jack Murtha should know better, and that all American service personnel are expected to perform professionally, honorably, and lawfully regardless of their mission. The anti-war movement should not have to resort to hype and fabrication of atrocities to make its case. And any soldier who fails to serve with honor is a phony indeed.

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